Tuesday, November 3, 2020

Isla Mujeres Daily News & Events Tuesday, Nov. 3


10a NHC update--Hurricane Eta appears to have peaked in intensity overnight as an eyewall replacement cycle occurred early this morning... Eta has been meandering just offshore of the coast of Nicaragua this morning...the hurricane should turn westard very soon with the center crossing the coast today. A ridge to the north of Eta should steer the cyclone on a faster W to WNW heading over norther Nicaragua & Honduras over the next couple of days. After 72 hours, a developing trough over the northern Gulf of Mexico should cause Eta or its remnants to turn N then NE. >>Given that the system is expected to remain over land for at least a couple of days, there continues to be significant uncertainty in the long range portion of the track and intensity forecasts.<<. (excerpted, >< emphasis is mine)
10a CONAGUA update- Hurricane Eta is 50 km/30 mi S-SE of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua & 745 km/460 mi SE of Puerto Costa Maya, Q Roo. Its extensive cloud bands reinforce the potential for rain in SE Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula
#4 CONAGUA>> Friday at 7a as a Low Pressure Remnant located 330 km / 205 mi S-SE of Chetumal..
>>Saturday at 7a as a Low Pressure Remnant located 185 km /115 mi SE of Puerto Costa Maya, Q Roo and 220 km / 135 mi E-SE of Chetumal
>>Sunday at 7a as a Tropical Storm 470 km / 290 mi E-SE of Cancun & 510 km /315 mi E-SE of Cabo Catoche. (my translation & km-mi conversions) 


 7a~~Cat-4 Hurricane Eta is very close to Nicaragua & will weaken as it moves across Central America. This weekend, the remnants may reform as a Tropical Depression & strengthen to a Tropical Storm after it leaves land & heads toward Cuba over the Caribbean Sea. The winds & rain we've been having the past few days are compliments of Cold Front #11 ("Norte"), which helped keep the hurricane away. Now both are affecting us, causing some impressive breakers. The NHC says:

Eta is an extremely severe hurricane, capable of causing very high storm surges and catastrophic damage. After the center moves inland later today, rapid weakening is likely while the circulation interacts with land. The official forecast shows the cyclone weakening to a depression by tomorrow. It is not certain that the surface circulation will survive after moving over Central America for the next three days or so. The official forecast shows the system, perhaps at first the upper-level remnant of Eta, emerging over the NW Caribbean Sea in the latter part of the forecast period. It should be noted that both the intensity and the track at 4-5 days are highly uncertain at this time. ...By 96-120 hours, a trough developing over the Gulf of Mexico should cause the system to turn N & NE but, as noted earlier, this future track is quite uncertain. ... The hurricane has slowed down and is moving a little south of west ... this motion will take the center across the coast in the Hurricane Warning area very soon. A weak ridge to the north of Eta should cause the cyclone to move W to W-NW over Central America during the next few days. (excerpted)
On CONAGUA's 4-day forecast, being encircled predicts rain, with darker meaning more, & the purple squigglies indicate wind.

 The passenger ferry to Puerto Juarez continues running this morning, and the car ferry to Punta Sam remains suspended due to weather conditions.


2p--The Governor says....This photo is of Cold Front #11 that goes down across our state. It has caused low temperatures, rain, winds, waves and high tides across much of the state's territory. It has also stopped Hurricane Eta in Central America. We're monitoring for changes in the weather.

 Today, Isla Mujeres reports another case of C-19 for a total of 222 with 20 death and 184 recovered. The last time we had a new case was Monday, Oct. 26. And the one before that was on Sunday, Oct. 18. However, there have been two deaths in those 17 days.

The state Geoportal reports 6 active cases by colonia as 11/2 as Salina Chica-1, La Gloria-2, and Downtown-3.

On the national map for 11/2, our municipality reports  145 suspicious and 103 negatives.


Yesterday....Isla Mujeres continues to report a total of 221 cases of C-19, with 20 deaths and 184 recovered.
>For our Northern Zone, the Growth Rate for cases has decreased to 0.26, from 0.29.
>The state geoportal still has data for Oct. 31, when the 6 active cases by colonia were 3 Downtown, 2 in La Gloria, and one in Salina Chica.
>On the national map for 11/1, our municipality reports 147 suspicious and 100 negatives.

 Thursday night, the Governor warned that our Northern Zone is on the verge of returning to Orange on the state Epidemiological light. This would mean closure of public beaches and reducing hotel & restaurant capacities from 60% to 30%. We'll remain in Yellow thru Nov. 8th, but he said we need to increase our efforts because the Contagion Rate had increased to 0.98-0.99, with 1.0 being the limit between Yellow & Orange. (In late September, he'd mentioned it increasing to 0.84, and the following week he said it "increased slightly" again.) The Contagion Rate indicates how many cases are generated from one infectious person.
Our seven-municipality Northern Zone contains ~1.5 million residents, of which we are a small fraction at ~21,000. Our Zone improved to Yellow nearly two months ago, after remaining in Orange for three months. (Before reopening in June, only essential businesses like groceries, pharmacies, & utility companies were open & we were only allowed outside for essential errands, for three months.)
The only statistic published for the Northern Zone is the "Growth Rate of New Cases", which is updated weekly on the Daily Reports & I collected them on the second graphic. The next color update will be Thursday night, for Monday thru Sunday, Nov. 9-15.

Bus company is planning a new tour service...


 From the City (Ayuntamiento de Isla Mujeres)

Caption:  In public places it is important to maintain healthy distance, with this measure you help reduce the contagion of Covid-19. The graphic says...1.5 meters between one person and another.

Caption--Let's continue to combat the spread of covid-19, remember to wash your hands frequently and you can also use antibacterial gel with 70 % alcohol when you're away from home. The graphic says to remember to use sufficient water and soap.

The caption says: Wearing face masks is the first barrier for slowing C-19 infections. The graphic says to remember that the pandemic continues, wear face masks.

 Discounts on many City fees, fines, taxes, etc continue thru Nov. 30

 With the long weekend for "Day of the Dead", hundreds of tourists arrived to Isla Mujeres to enjoy the various attractions of the this destination, including its white-sand beaches and turquoise waters. This weekend an increase in visitors was noted, which will strengthen the local economic recovery, while continueing to carry out all measures of hygiene and healthy distancing to continue preventing the spread of C-19 and protecting the health of everyone. 

     While tourism promotion has changed as a result of the pandemic, this work at both national and international levels continues toward positioning Isla Mujeres as the favorite destination of the Mexican Caribbean. Evidence of this is the preparations to participate in the 2nd edition of the Pueblos Magicos Tianguis (Convention) which will be held digitally on Dec. 9 & 10 in San Luis Potosi. Preparations are being made to promote the various attractions of the Pueblo Magico of Isla Mujeres. 



  This blog is brought to you by....

MaraVilla Caribe   Bed & Beach    Four rentals with large glass doors overlooking our white sand beach and the beautiful Caribbean sea, with  kitchenettes & fast WIFI. In the upscale neighborhood of  Bachilleres, convenient to downtown or the colonias, yet separate.  Quiet & Private.   
Free amenities include hammocks, portable beach chairs, beach towels, washer & dryer, loungers, shared bikes, BBQ grill, and safes.  Panoramic views from the rooftop terrace. Large sliding doors open to a patio & the white sand backyard-beach, overlooking the Caribbean sea.  Downtown is  ~ a mile away; we're on all four bus routes or  flag a $3 taxi. Off street parking. In the quiet neighborhood of Bachilleres sleep to the sounds of the sea.$275/$325/$425 wk   $40/50/$65nt  Monthly Discounts
Fine dining a few steps away at Da Luisa or try the neighborhood eateries a couple blocks farther. We provide a list of links & direction to over 20 eateries within ten minutes walk, including Mango Cafe,  Mike's Pizza, Brisas, Rosa Sirena, Coco Jaguar, Manolitos, La Chatita, Green Verde, Kash Kechen Chuc, and the large department store-grocery Chedraui & the local craft brewery.  Visit marinas, bars, & beach clubs that are minutes away by bike or on foot. Attend Yoga classes a couple villas away at Casa Ixchel. Fresh juice, produce & tortillas a few blocks away in the village, as well as a variety of other stores.
Full moon rising over the Caribbean 


Full moon rose Oct. 31-6:30p 

Nov 1-Sunday at 7:07p

Nov 2-Monday at 7:46p

Nov 3 Tuesday at 8:30p

Nov 4 Wednesday at 9:18p

Nov 5 Thursday at 10:10p

Nov 6 Friday at 11:06p

 Sunrise 6:50-7:07 (beginning vs end of month)

Sunset 6:10-6:04

Turtles continue hatching out at the Tortugranja in November

The mamas nest along the eastern beaches from May thru October. Tortugranja staff and volunteers gather the eggs and incubate them in the sand in a pen outside the facility. Three species nest annually in Isla Mujeres, Greens, Loggerheads, and Hawksbills.  Photos of nest hatching out at MaraVilla Caribe Bed & Beach, that was missed by the Tortugranja patrols, by Bruce.







 Public events have been suspended due to C-19. Holidays have featured online competitions and events.

 Nov. 1-2--Dia de los Muertos/ Day of the Dead

Nov. 9-20--Buen Fin (Sales)

Thursday, Nov. 12--Postal Workers Day El Día del Cartero y del Empleado Postal

Monday, Nov. 16-- Día de la Revolución Day off (Long weekend) Offices close.

Friday, Nov. 20--Día de la Revolución

 Nov. 16-17--Leonid meteor shower, without moon interference this year. Beginning after midnight and peaking before dawn.

 Thursday, Nov. 26--Normally celebrations for Isla's Patron Saint would begin and continue thru her day, December 8, but this year public celebrations have been suspended due to C-19. 

Monday, Nov. 30--Official end of Hurricane season

Sources for Weather Information:
LINK to Civil Protection Q Roo weather bulletin  (Spanish)
LINK to Mexico National Weather Service (Spanish)
 LINK to satellite images for the Mexico National Weather Service
 LINK to GOES East Band 16 GIF (animation)
LINK to a private weather station on Isla Mujeres









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